Last week, the chairman of LED companies such as Jingdian, Yuyuan, Yiguang and Dongbei collectively expressed optimism about the prosperity of the LED industry in 2014. It is expected that LED will be out of the dilemma of oversupply. In the first half of the year, there is no need to worry about the confidence of demand in the first half of the year, mainly based on the launch of the North American market and the response strategy of the lighting giant. According to DOE data, as of 2012, North American incandescent lamps accounted for about 55% of the bulbs, and as of the end of 2012, the penetration rate of LEDs was less than 1, so the United States began to completely ban white LED lighting from the New Year's Day in 2014; 2013 In the year, CREE took the lead in provoking price wars, making the original lighting giants Philips, GE, OSRAM, etc. all in a passive situation. In order to maintain market share, Philips and other lighting giants have developed extremely aggressive sales strategies. The growth rate is preset at 80-100. In the first half of the year, the lighting giant has enough power to win the LED lighting market, which will drive the rapid growth of LED demand. In the second half of the year, don't worry about the supply based on the current industry's weak season in January. The market has given more optimistic expectations for the shortage of LED chips and price increases, but the situation of chip shortages is difficult to see at least in the first half of 2014: The industry estimates that Sanan Optoelectronics and Epistar will complete the testing of Veeco and Aixtron's new MOCVD equipment in the second quarter, and will reduce or even stop the purchase of MOCVD equipment in the first quarter based on the new cost-effectiveness of the new model equipment, but due to Optimistic expectations for LED lighting, some enterprises have completed expansion at the end of 2013. It is expected that at least 60-80 units of equipment capacity will be produced in China in the first quarter of 2014, regardless of the release of equipment capacity such as Sanan and Dehao. Will be released, so the optimistic expectation of chip prices in the first half of the year is stable, on the contrary, due to the decline in the power of purchasing equipment in the first quarter, the first half of the year will be the final release period of upstream capacity, and the supply and demand relationship of LED chips will become more benign in the second half of the year. Even if LED demand is still lower than expected in the third quarter, there is no need to worry about the impact on chip companies; the international supply chain benefits the most: due to the big factory The control of the chain should be strict. Generally, it takes several years from the trial to the large-volume procurement. There are not many enterprises that can enter the international supply chain. The traditional lighting manufacturers such as sunlight lighting are the main beneficiaries, and the LED chip leader An Optoelectronics bypasses patent barriers by entering the company, and is expected to enter the international supply chain by contracting for the round. The domestic market is expelling good money in the traditional lighting era due to the commercial environment, so that most of the quality enterprises can only export. In the market, although the situation faced by LED lighting has improved, it is still difficult to avoid bad money to drive out good money. Only companies with channel brands can enjoy the benefits brought by brand premium.
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