In 2014, the era of LED lighting is coming, the industry turning point is upward, profit is improving, and policy catalysis is accelerating. In 2014, the industry's prosperity and expansion confidence will continue to rise, and the industry's growth rate is expected to grow at a high rate. The key point is that the minimum price difference between one LED and energy-saving lamps is nearly doubled; the second: the $10 sweet spot product category increases rapidly; the third: the demand enters the stage of high elastic growth, the demand is greatly increased for price sensitivity; and the fourth: LED lighting application The contribution ratio of output value will be equivalent to that of backlight, and it is expected to reach 40 or above. Fifth, the price decline in 2014 is relatively limited, with a single quarterly decline of less than 5. From a financial perspective, the industry's profitability continues to improve, and gross margin is expected to gradually stabilize. From the policy point of view, in 2014, the world entered the second wave of incandescent lamps banned peak period, accelerating the promotion of LED lighting related products.
In 2014, LED lighting demand is expected to rise, or drive the improvement of supply and demand in the entire industry chain. From the perspective of the industrial chain, with the rapid growth of lighting application demand, after the de-capacity of 2012-2013, the capacity utilization rate of MOCVD equipment will continue to rise in 2014, from 74 in 2013 to 85 or more (domestic by 63 in 2013). The above increase to above 72), with the increase in the utilization rate of MOCVD equipment, the international leading manufacturers have proposed to increase capital expenditures, showing confidence in the future. The capacity utilization rate of MOCVD equipment has increased, and the demand for upstream Mo source and sapphire has been driven upwards. Supply and demand are expected to continue to improve. In the downstream packaging application, as traditional lighting manufacturers accelerate the transition to LED, the industry concentration will gradually increase, and the supply and demand relationship will gradually improve.
The acquisition and consolidation in 2014 is expected to continue and increase flexibility. According to relevant statistics, there were more than a dozen incidents of mergers and acquisitions in the LED industry in 2013. There were 11 companies involved in listed companies, including 8 applications involving packaging applications, mainly in product structure expansion and product application areas. The extension of the industrial chain is mainly to further extend the application of the packaging application to downstream applications or channels. Our analysis believes that with the scale advantage, it is expected that the industry acquisition will continue in 2014, especially in the packaging application, there will be more listed companies to launch a series of acquisitions and consolidation with the listing platform, in order to optimize product structure and application. field.
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