The China Rubber Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as the "China Rubber Association") recently issued an early warning on the special safeguard investigation of China's carbon black initiated by India and hopes that the Chinese producers and exporters involved in the case will submit an exporter's questionnaire to the Indian Safeguard Bureau before the New Year's Day. And comments on the case. It is expected by the industry that the price of carbon black will not rise until the Spring Festival.
On December 2, 2011, the Indian Safeguards Bureau issued an announcement deciding to investigate the special safeguard measures for rubber blacks originating in China. The relevant person in charge of the China Rubber Association stated that the case was filed by the Indian Carbon Black Manufacturers Association on behalf of its two members. The two companies claimed to account for more than 80% of India’s domestic carbon black production. The applicant provided data on domestic industrial damage from April 2008 to October 2011, claiming that during the damage investigation period, China’s carbon black imports increased by 429%, and India’s domestic industrial output, capacity utilization rate, market share, and profit dropped significantly. The number of domestic industry stocks has risen significantly. The applicant believes that China carbon black has caused market disruption to the domestic industry in India and therefore requires a four-year special bond tax on Chinese carbon black.
The aforementioned person in charge of the China Rubber Association pointed out that if Chinese manufacturers, exporters, etc. involved in the case have to respond, they must submit a questionnaire to the Indian Ministry of Safeguards and a comment on the case before the New Year's Day.
The reporter then learned from Zhongyu Information that whether this taxation can affect the trend of carbon black in 2012 has not been conclusive in the short term. Taking into account the gradual recovery of the current market price sentiment, it is expected that short-term carbon black will continue to remain sideways.
The data shows that the domestic carbon black market has been consolidating in the near-term and partially still falling. Among them, the price decline of carbon black plant is mostly caused by the previous repo. In addition to individual large plants, the carbon black plant operating rate is generally below 60%. Among them, the domestic carbon black N220 mainstream price in the 6100-6700 yuan / ton, the carbon black N330 mainstream price in 5700-6300 yuan / ton.
However, the price of carbon black in various regions is relatively firm. Zhong Wei, an analyst at Nasdaq, pointed out that this was mainly due to a slight increase in the upstream coal tar market. Data show that the East China coal tar market has recently risen by around RMB 50/t.
It is reported that the coal tar market has some good support in the near future: If the coking plant's production restriction status is still continuing, all manufacturers are willing to keep their prices in the absence of inventory pressure; at the same time, the focus of market transactions is gradually moving up.
“Coal tar still has some room for price increases, and the price of carbon black will meet the expectations of rising after reaching its bottom. However, considering that demand is still weak, it is expected that the long-term growth may occur after the Spring Festival.†Na Wei Say.
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