Toyota, which has always been technologically proficient, has once again become a target of public criticism.
Just before Toyota’s Prius off the assembly line, Toyota’s claim that Prias would lead the Chinese standard for hybrid vehicles began to circulate in the industry. Some insiders began to condemn Toyota’s unethical behavior, and experts and scholars publicly turned to the public. General Motors is cheering for the popularity of diesel vehicles and hydrogen-powered vehicles in China. This series of practices makes Toyota very passive.
Earlier this year, during an interview with reporters in Japan, the reporter asked why Prius had repeatedly postponed the downline dates. Toyota’s permanent agent Jin Tianxin was innocent and blamed the problem on the Chinese government’s inadequacy of the development of hybrid vehicle standards; now everything is ready. Jintianxin is also afraid to laugh because China’s public opinion is more worrying than the certification standards. As a Japanese company, Toyota's road to China is not smooth. Compared with Honda, its foundation is not deep enough. Compared with Nissan, which has formed a strategic alliance with Renault in France, it is too aloof.
Domestic companies are good at seizing Toyota's weaknesses and cracking down on them. Two years ago, Toyota, who had no knowledge of current affairs, had found Geely’s troubles on intellectual property issues. Li Shufu did not say anything. He took the image of a Chinese national brand and made Toyota seem to have no face. Eventually it was over. Nowadays, many companies have raised doubts about the standard of hybrid vehicles in China and put pressure on Toyota, which is trying to promote hybrid vehicles in the Chinese market. It can be imagined that, apart from Toyota's annoyance, FAW may not be comfortable. FAW Toyota introduced China from the determination of Prius to the first car off the assembly line for a full two years. Although we did not expect this car to sell as soon as it came out, there is a high hope for it.
The industry is optimistic about hybrid vehicles, and people of insight in the academic world have come forward to question the feasibility of hybrid vehicles in China. The change is very sudden. What's more, because of the emergence of Prius, domestic companies have also launched their own hybrid vehicle development plans, and they are always ready to make a big splash. Why should they throw a cold water at this time?
The development of diesel vehicles on the one hand is limited by the ratio of diesel oil from domestic oil refining companies. On the other hand, there are also many restrictive factors such as the failure of oil quality, high diesel prices, severe nitrogen oxide and particulate pollution, and low consumer acceptance. The development of hydrogen-powered vehicles needs to be researched from now on, but it is not universal in the past 10 years. From an international point of view, hybrid vehicles are indeed the general trend. Even in Europe where diesel vehicles are prevalent, the market share of hybrid vehicles has gradually increased.
If other external factors are thrown away, many people in the industry are not optimistic about hybrid vehicles. It is likely to prevent Toyota from standing out in China. Toyota is not a simple grasshopper. It stands tall and jumps so far, so shoot it with a big slap. As the owner of the most mature technology in hybrid vehicles, the importance of Toyota is self-evident in many people's hearts. If the Chinese market fully accepts hybrid vehicles, it is likely that all companies will have to buy technology from Toyota. Toyota is also turning into a monopoly of oligarchs. This is not a blessing for the Chinese auto industry.
If a sophisticated technology is not used by the entire industry but is owned by a few companies, monopoly will emerge. When Microsoft developed the operating system Windows to divide the PC market, the Linux system that the source code shared throughout the industry emerged, which to some extent curbed the expansion of Microsoft. Compared with the IT industry, the automotive industry does not have a free lunch. To acquire technology, you can buy it. However, if you want to master technology, it is not just money.
At present, the anxious state of the Chinese auto industry is indeed chilling. Take the hybrid vehicle standard released by the state, companies use public opinion to attack Toyota, which itself is an irrational act. According to Wu Wei, director of the China Automotive Standardization Institute, there are statutory organizations and procedures for the formulation of standards, and participation mechanisms for domestic backbone enterprises, institutions, and members of the Standardization Technical Committee are not individual or single-unit decisions, and it is even more unlikely that foreign companies can make decisions. Around, this is the basic truth.
It is understood that China has made reference to international standards (ISO), the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), European standards (EN), etc., as well as the standards of the Japan Electric Vehicle Association. Regardless of the Japanese standards, the first three international standards also clearly bear the shadow of Toyota, because these standards have also been referenced to Toyota's technical experimental methods. Obviously, no matter how evasive it is, domestic standards may not be without Toyota's inclination. When formulating standards, in addition to specific technical requirements for specific components such as batteries and motors and electrical systems, all other standards are related to experimental methods and do not involve patented technologies. Therefore, no market influence or legal restrictions are imposed on any manufacturers. Saying that according to the standard, it must be paid to Toyota to pay for technology transfer, which is completely nonsense.
From another point of view, if companies can't get their own experimental standards, what qualifications are there to blame China's standards? At present, the hybrid vehicles developed by domestic companies are still partially concealed, although they have said they have passed the acceptance of the national 863 project team, but have not dared to allow consumers to test true and false. The lack of marketization of products is extenuating, but companies cannot even obtain theoretical results.
Why do companies make such a big move on a standard? To put it bluntly, the competition among domestic companies has so far only been limited to competing for strong partners. The purpose of the joint venture is to gain technology instead of mastering technology. Without cooperation with Toyota, many companies in the country will have no way out when the global auto industry platform is replaced by hybrid vehicles. The reason why companies are making trouble with Toyota is actually to prevent FAW Toyota from taking the initiative in the hybrid vehicle market, so that they can have a respite.
Some people say that it will be premature to mention whether hybrid vehicles will be popular in the country. In fact, whether it is a hybrid vehicle or a hydrogen-powered vehicle, it involves a core technology issue.
At present, the development of hybrid vehicles in China, there are several roads to be over. First of all, hybrid vehicles need to make a fuss about the engine. The core technologies of common gas and diesel engines are not yet fully understood. Secondly, hybrid vehicles need to match control and power. This is a new type of system that conventional cars do not have. We also There is no control; third, the conventional drive motor does not have the same, domestic research did not pass; the last is the battery problem, foreign countries have successfully developed aluminum air battery, zinc air battery, nickel-hydrogen batteries and other high-energy batteries, Prius The nickel-metal hydride battery, and China's high-energy batteries are being developed, as far as lead-acid batteries are still used in electric vehicles, the production line is also imported into China.
It seems that in the marketization of hybrid vehicles, the reason why domestic companies do not light rain thunder, there is still no breakthrough in technical difficulties. Of course, we can also cooperate with Honda or other companies that master hybrid technologies, but in the end we still cannot avoid the lack of core technologies.
This has returned to the issue of developing independent brands. For a long time, independent R&D has been a required course for Chinese auto companies. Successful companies that have achieved joint ventures can allow foreigners to take the exams, but the higher scores are not their own achievements. Now the trend of self-owned brand has started again, but people are getting used to the test, and companies are even more lazy in their R&D. After the full-scale outsourcing model development, many companies went to the other extreme. In many cases, outsourcing to foreign companies is a core component, and their own parts factories can only produce low value-added products.
The Chinese home appliance market is an example. While home appliance companies are developing through mass production, they also provide huge profits for foreign core technology and component suppliers. Take color TV industry as an example, so far no company has been able to get rid of the shackles of core technology. China’s color TV sets use the banner of “Made in China†to occupy the market while using a large amount of Japanese kinescopes. China has indeed become a big producer of color TVs, but most of the profits are still earned by Japanese manufacturers, resulting in the color TV industry. The dismal scene is also the inevitable result of color TV companies' unwillingness to advance.
This is just as insignificant as discussing whether a joint venture can produce its own brand. There may be independent brands, but it is doubtful whether independent development capability can be improved. It is not difficult to produce its own brand on the original vehicle platform of the joint venture, but the platform technology, chassis, and engine are all owned by others. The so-called “replacement†is not a change of drugs, and the joint venture has only given its own brand a name.
In fact, during the “10th Five-Year Plan†period, the country’s investment in electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles reached 880 million yuan. Together with local and corporate funds, the total investment amounted to 2.4 billion yuan. Of course, the money is not sent to a company, but almost all large enterprise groups and related research institutions have children. According to reports, there are a total of 74 special research projects for the first batch of electric vehicles. The reporter had previously interviewed an old Dongfeng expert on science and technology. He said that Dongfeng’s research on electric vehicles has been going on for 10 years. It only has a few million yuan of funds each year. This money is simply a glass of water.
It can be seen that everyone is going to grab the R&D expenditure of the 863 project. There are so many enterprises in the country and there is not much to share with the country. Finally, it is impossible for companies to rely on that money for independent research and development, but also to buy foreign technology. However, the risk of desperate investment in a company is also very high. Unlike the two bombs, the automobile is to be put into commercial operation. As for the research and development of high-tech, the state has been allocating money, but there are also many detours, such as the development of pure electric vehicles for a long time. Foreign countries have realized that this type of vehicle is not commercially viable. They have turned to the research of fuel cell vehicles, and China is still holding up on pure electric vehicles.
The prevailing mentality of the Chinese people is that they don’t suffer from inequality and the same is true for companies. If we put a limited amount of funds into the investment, will China's auto R&D be hopeful? In fact, the most cost-effective way is: The government will organize companies to focus on technical forces and work together to solve problems. Since the "three major, three small, and one small" cannot be less, a certain proportion of researchers from each company will set up a joint development team. Once technical breakthroughs are achieved, the results are shared by companies. Each company uses these technologies to develop its own models and then compete in the market.
This may be more meaningful than competing for a joint venture partner. (Wang Chao)
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