I also learned from some suppliers that in the first half of this year, many manufacturers, including BorgWarner and other large foreign-invested parts manufacturers, could not meet order requirements in domestic production, and even rely on imports to meet (market demand). These all reflect that the commercial vehicle market is still in a tight state before the implementation of the Euro III standard.
The switch of Euro II to Euro III will increase the cost of heavy-duty engines by around RMB 20,000/station – which is what I learned with some suppliers. However, the actual growth in the end depends on the implementation of this law. In the first two years, the state had required the mandatory assembly of ABS anti-lock braking systems on heavy-duty vehicles, but there was still a certain buffer period and poor supervision during the actual implementation. Last year, the inspection results showed that the actual number of installed anti-lock brakes was less than 60%. . There are many commercial vehicle manufacturers in China, with uneven levels, and the actual needs of users are different. Therefore, it is unclear how much the actual cost will increase.
In addition to the issue of discounted efforts, there are oil matching issues. After achieving the Euro III standard, the use of clean fuel must be promoted to truly achieve the purpose of controlling pollution. In our country, it is not until the end of 2009 that standard oil products may be widely supplied. Prior to this time, (standard oil products) or inconvenient access or high prices, the use of Euro II oil products on standard vehicles will damage engines and exhaust gas catalysts, etc. D. There are road conditions, driving skills, daily maintenance, and traffic management, which are all obstacles to the implementation of policies.
According to the situation of enterprises in the first half of this year, most companies have large-span growth. In the coming year, large commercial vehicle manufacturers such as FAW, Dongfeng, and CNHTC will occupy the major market share, but the rankings will change somewhat, and not necessarily the old companies will always be strong. Global Insight lowered its forecast for the commercial vehicle market in the fourth quarter of this year. The main reason is not the Chinese economy. The recession in the US economy has already had a slow impact on Europe. This domino effect may spread to Asia.
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