A sudden earthquake not only changed the fate of tens of thousands of compatriots, but also will have a certain impact on the future trend of some chemical products markets. This is the view of many industry insiders when the reporter interviewed in recent days.
Fertilizer market will stop falling and stabilizing. “This huge earthquake that shocks the world will make the currently falling fertilizer prices stop falling and stabilize, and regain the upward trend.†For the later trend of the fertilizer market, Shaanxi Feihe Coal Chemical Group Marketing Minister Xue Xue The three provinces expressed their views.
Xue Sanxing said that since the country imposed a 100% export tariff on fertilizer products including urea, it basically blocked the export of domestic chemical fertilizers, and the domestic chemical fertilizer supply increased rapidly. With the end of the peak season for spring plowing, since late April, in addition to potash fertilizer, the price of fertilizers in the country has generally been limited to stagflation, and high-concentration fertilizers such as compound fertilizers, urea, and diammonium phosphate prices have also fallen sharply. According to the original forecast, this wave of decline may not reach the end of June and the end of June. But the Wenshan earthquake will undoubtedly change this prediction. The reason is: After the major earthquake, a considerable number of roads in Sichuan were seriously damaged. The Baocheng-Chengdu Railway has not been able to get through so far. Some roads and bridges in Shaanxi, Ningxia, Henan, Yunnan, and Guizhou have been damaged, reducing Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou. The output of geo-phosphorus ore resulted in tight supply of phosphate ore in the market and the price rose. Many phosphate and compound fertilizer enterprises not only increase the cost, but also cannot maintain full-load production at all, reducing the social supply of phosphorus and compound fertilizers.
For nitrogenous fertilizers, companies such as Chuanhua and Meifeng are affected by the earthquake and it is expected that the reduction in urea production will exceed 500,000 tons. Although the negative impact of the earthquake on chemical fertilizer production and social supply is not obvious in the current off-season fertilizer season, it is still a short time from now until now that due to the need to concentrate on delivering disaster relief materials and infrastructure materials to the disaster areas, raw materials for fertilizer companies will still be available. The transportation of products is affected to a certain extent, so the production of fertilizers and social supply are not optimistic. It is expected that in the future, the domestic fertilizer market will soon stop falling and stabilizing, showing steady upward trend.
Changing demand for PVC demand growth For polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and downstream processing companies, post-disaster reconstruction will make them new. In recent years, whether it is plastic profiles or pipe companies, or calcium carbide PVC companies, the days are not very good. One of the reasons is that the capacity expansion is too fast and the supply exceeds demand.
Taking calcium carbide process PVC as an example, the average annual increase since 2005 has reached more than 20%. In 2006, China's PVC achieved net export for the first time, and its supply in 2007 slightly exceeded supply. According to the statistics of the China Chlor-Alkali Association, in 2008, China will add about 4 million tons of PVC production capacity for calcium carbide process, and the oversupply will be a foregone conclusion. However, after the earthquake, as tens of thousands of houses and many public facilities in the disaster area were destroyed and reconstruction work is about to begin, whether it is new housing or municipal and public utilities, a large amount of plastic steel will be used in accordance with the relevant energy conservation requirements of the Ministry of Construction. Doors and windows, aluminum-plastic composite materials and plastics, drainage pipe fittings. Because calcium carbide process PVC has a good cost performance, PVC products will become the material of choice for reconstruction after the disaster, so that the demand for PVC and its products has increased substantially.
At the same time, due to the earthquake, Sichuan Jinlu Group, the largest calcium carbide method PVC production enterprise in Southwest China, has been parked since May 12, due to some equipment being displaced or damaged. According to the person in charge, it is expected that the device can be resumed at the end of May. . Even so, the local government has asked the company to first produce the sodium hypochlorite, a disinfectant needed urgently in the disaster-stricken area after the installation is restored. Therefore, the most optimistic estimate is that the company's PVC plant will be fully restored to production after mid-June.
Not only that, the raw materials of calcium carbide originally produced by Jinlu Group were mainly from Wenchuan and Dujiangyan, and now the calcium carbide enterprises in these regions have completely collapsed. The supply of raw materials in the future will have to be transported from Gansu and Shaanxi, thousands of miles away, with high freight rates. Not to mention, it's hard to say if supply guarantees. According to the person in charge of the Jinlu Group, due to the interruption or reduction in the supply of calcium carbide in Sichuan and surrounding areas, PVC enterprises are generally “failed to eat†and there is almost no inventory at present. In addition, the local demand for PVC is very strong, resulting in the recent shortage of PVC, the price rose sharply, the ex-factory price has reached 8,700 yuan / ton.
"In the later period, with the reconstruction work after the disaster, the demand for PVC and its products will inevitably increase geometrically. Not only will the risk of overcapacity be mitigated, but also the price of the product will continue to increase, and related companies will benefit." The person in charge said.
In addition, some people in the industry also believe that in the PVC demand is buoyant and blue-carbon, white ash and freight rates continue to rise, the price of calcium carbide will also rise, at least will maintain a high of 4,000 yuan / ton.
The short-term price of alcohol ethers will rise Because the Sichuan-Yunnan region is also one of the major alcohol and ether production sites in the country, the supply of alcohol ethers accounts for 1/5 of the consumption of the major consumer sites of alcohol ethers in East China and South China. After the earthquake, the alcohol ether companies in the two regions were almost without exception. Some companies even suffered from shortage of natural gas or “air-breathing†or were forced to stop due to safety reasons, which had a significant impact on the recent market.
According to Li Yongsheng, Minister of Propaganda Department of Shaanxi Chenghua Co., Ltd., affected by the drastic reduction in the output of Chuanxiong alcohol ether, the recent changes in the prices of alcohol ethers in East China and South China have changed sharply in the previous period, and they have rapidly increased. The ex-factory price has climbed from 3,200 yuan/ton in the previous period to 3,400 to 3,500 yuan/ton, which is very good.
“However, due to the rapid growth of domestic methanol and dimethyl ether in the past two years, the production of alcohol ether in Sichuan and Chongqing accounts for a small proportion of the total national production. Therefore, the impact of the earthquake on the national alcohol ether market will be very limited and will not change alcohol. The operating pattern of the ether market is unlikely to see continued increases in the price of alcohol ethers in the later period.†Li Yongsheng of Chenghua Chemical Co., Ltd., Xue Sansheng of Suihua Group, and Li Renjie, director of the general managerial office of Shaanxi Qinling Chemical Fertilizer Plant, agreed.
The current business opportunities for chemical products for disaster relief Shaanxi Zenghua Group's propaganda department minister Zeng Qingfeng told reporters that the infrastructure construction in the disaster area and the removal of road debris will increase the demand for civilian explosives, which in turn will drive up the demand for ammonium nitrate and stimulate its price increase. At present, the ex-factory price of ammonium nitrate has soared from RMB 1800/tonne a month ago to RMB 2,200/tonne. It is very likely that the ex-factory price of ammonium nitrate will exceed RMB 2,300/tonne recently. Therefore, Xinghua Company is making every effort to organize production. The person in charge of the Xi'an Kaimi Group stated that a large number of disinfecting supplies are urgently needed in the disaster area, which will bring business opportunities to many washing and disinfecting products manufacturers including Kaimi Group.
Fertilizer market will stop falling and stabilizing. “This huge earthquake that shocks the world will make the currently falling fertilizer prices stop falling and stabilize, and regain the upward trend.†For the later trend of the fertilizer market, Shaanxi Feihe Coal Chemical Group Marketing Minister Xue Xue The three provinces expressed their views.
Xue Sanxing said that since the country imposed a 100% export tariff on fertilizer products including urea, it basically blocked the export of domestic chemical fertilizers, and the domestic chemical fertilizer supply increased rapidly. With the end of the peak season for spring plowing, since late April, in addition to potash fertilizer, the price of fertilizers in the country has generally been limited to stagflation, and high-concentration fertilizers such as compound fertilizers, urea, and diammonium phosphate prices have also fallen sharply. According to the original forecast, this wave of decline may not reach the end of June and the end of June. But the Wenshan earthquake will undoubtedly change this prediction. The reason is: After the major earthquake, a considerable number of roads in Sichuan were seriously damaged. The Baocheng-Chengdu Railway has not been able to get through so far. Some roads and bridges in Shaanxi, Ningxia, Henan, Yunnan, and Guizhou have been damaged, reducing Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou. The output of geo-phosphorus ore resulted in tight supply of phosphate ore in the market and the price rose. Many phosphate and compound fertilizer enterprises not only increase the cost, but also cannot maintain full-load production at all, reducing the social supply of phosphorus and compound fertilizers.
For nitrogenous fertilizers, companies such as Chuanhua and Meifeng are affected by the earthquake and it is expected that the reduction in urea production will exceed 500,000 tons. Although the negative impact of the earthquake on chemical fertilizer production and social supply is not obvious in the current off-season fertilizer season, it is still a short time from now until now that due to the need to concentrate on delivering disaster relief materials and infrastructure materials to the disaster areas, raw materials for fertilizer companies will still be available. The transportation of products is affected to a certain extent, so the production of fertilizers and social supply are not optimistic. It is expected that in the future, the domestic fertilizer market will soon stop falling and stabilizing, showing steady upward trend.
Changing demand for PVC demand growth For polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and downstream processing companies, post-disaster reconstruction will make them new. In recent years, whether it is plastic profiles or pipe companies, or calcium carbide PVC companies, the days are not very good. One of the reasons is that the capacity expansion is too fast and the supply exceeds demand.
Taking calcium carbide process PVC as an example, the average annual increase since 2005 has reached more than 20%. In 2006, China's PVC achieved net export for the first time, and its supply in 2007 slightly exceeded supply. According to the statistics of the China Chlor-Alkali Association, in 2008, China will add about 4 million tons of PVC production capacity for calcium carbide process, and the oversupply will be a foregone conclusion. However, after the earthquake, as tens of thousands of houses and many public facilities in the disaster area were destroyed and reconstruction work is about to begin, whether it is new housing or municipal and public utilities, a large amount of plastic steel will be used in accordance with the relevant energy conservation requirements of the Ministry of Construction. Doors and windows, aluminum-plastic composite materials and plastics, drainage pipe fittings. Because calcium carbide process PVC has a good cost performance, PVC products will become the material of choice for reconstruction after the disaster, so that the demand for PVC and its products has increased substantially.
At the same time, due to the earthquake, Sichuan Jinlu Group, the largest calcium carbide method PVC production enterprise in Southwest China, has been parked since May 12, due to some equipment being displaced or damaged. According to the person in charge, it is expected that the device can be resumed at the end of May. . Even so, the local government has asked the company to first produce the sodium hypochlorite, a disinfectant needed urgently in the disaster-stricken area after the installation is restored. Therefore, the most optimistic estimate is that the company's PVC plant will be fully restored to production after mid-June.
Not only that, the raw materials of calcium carbide originally produced by Jinlu Group were mainly from Wenchuan and Dujiangyan, and now the calcium carbide enterprises in these regions have completely collapsed. The supply of raw materials in the future will have to be transported from Gansu and Shaanxi, thousands of miles away, with high freight rates. Not to mention, it's hard to say if supply guarantees. According to the person in charge of the Jinlu Group, due to the interruption or reduction in the supply of calcium carbide in Sichuan and surrounding areas, PVC enterprises are generally “failed to eat†and there is almost no inventory at present. In addition, the local demand for PVC is very strong, resulting in the recent shortage of PVC, the price rose sharply, the ex-factory price has reached 8,700 yuan / ton.
"In the later period, with the reconstruction work after the disaster, the demand for PVC and its products will inevitably increase geometrically. Not only will the risk of overcapacity be mitigated, but also the price of the product will continue to increase, and related companies will benefit." The person in charge said.
In addition, some people in the industry also believe that in the PVC demand is buoyant and blue-carbon, white ash and freight rates continue to rise, the price of calcium carbide will also rise, at least will maintain a high of 4,000 yuan / ton.
The short-term price of alcohol ethers will rise Because the Sichuan-Yunnan region is also one of the major alcohol and ether production sites in the country, the supply of alcohol ethers accounts for 1/5 of the consumption of the major consumer sites of alcohol ethers in East China and South China. After the earthquake, the alcohol ether companies in the two regions were almost without exception. Some companies even suffered from shortage of natural gas or “air-breathing†or were forced to stop due to safety reasons, which had a significant impact on the recent market.
According to Li Yongsheng, Minister of Propaganda Department of Shaanxi Chenghua Co., Ltd., affected by the drastic reduction in the output of Chuanxiong alcohol ether, the recent changes in the prices of alcohol ethers in East China and South China have changed sharply in the previous period, and they have rapidly increased. The ex-factory price has climbed from 3,200 yuan/ton in the previous period to 3,400 to 3,500 yuan/ton, which is very good.
“However, due to the rapid growth of domestic methanol and dimethyl ether in the past two years, the production of alcohol ether in Sichuan and Chongqing accounts for a small proportion of the total national production. Therefore, the impact of the earthquake on the national alcohol ether market will be very limited and will not change alcohol. The operating pattern of the ether market is unlikely to see continued increases in the price of alcohol ethers in the later period.†Li Yongsheng of Chenghua Chemical Co., Ltd., Xue Sansheng of Suihua Group, and Li Renjie, director of the general managerial office of Shaanxi Qinling Chemical Fertilizer Plant, agreed.
The current business opportunities for chemical products for disaster relief Shaanxi Zenghua Group's propaganda department minister Zeng Qingfeng told reporters that the infrastructure construction in the disaster area and the removal of road debris will increase the demand for civilian explosives, which in turn will drive up the demand for ammonium nitrate and stimulate its price increase. At present, the ex-factory price of ammonium nitrate has soared from RMB 1800/tonne a month ago to RMB 2,200/tonne. It is very likely that the ex-factory price of ammonium nitrate will exceed RMB 2,300/tonne recently. Therefore, Xinghua Company is making every effort to organize production. The person in charge of the Xi'an Kaimi Group stated that a large number of disinfecting supplies are urgently needed in the disaster area, which will bring business opportunities to many washing and disinfecting products manufacturers including Kaimi Group.
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