The rapid rise in sales of new energy vehicles has fueled the lithium-ion battery industry. CCM, a market research company, released a forecast report that the lithium-ion battery market is entering a golden period with the growth of China's electric vehicle sales. By 2017, the lithium-ion battery industry will surge to 400%.
Behind the surge in demand is the structural problems of the power battery industry. "At present, there are many domestic power battery manufacturers, but there are only a handful of them that can be used in electric vehicles. According to statistics, 60%~70% of vehicle power batteries are currently from foreign-funded enterprises." Edited by Yang Puyu told reporters.
The battery supply "left and right" new energy sales "happiness troubles" is a word that a Roewe brand dealer in Shanghai recently often hangs on the lips. "The order for 550plug-in has accumulated more than 30, but the manufacturers "There is no shortage of cars in production." "At present, our new energy vehicles are in short supply. The main reason is the shortage of core components." An insider of SAIC passenger cars said frankly. According to its disclosure, this lack of core components includes power batteries. Not only SAIC, in the moment, BYD new energy vehicles are also due to the lack of supply of batteries and the order can not be delivered on time. "The cars we are paying now are all orders for 2014. Now we have to wait at least 3 months to book a car." BYD Shanghai dealer told reporters. At the same time, according to relevant personnel of SAIC Commercial Vehicle Brand and Network Management Department, the power battery of its supplier Guoxuan Hi-Tech is currently in short supply. The general manager of Hunan Changsha Zhongtai Automobile said in an interview that in order to guarantee the market supply of new energy vehicles such as Yun 100, it is trying to negotiate with battery suppliers to “specialize†for one company.
"The explosive growth rate of new energy vehicles is much higher than the expectations of manufacturers, so there is a short-term shortage of power batteries." Yang Puyu said. According to the data provided by China's New Energy Automobile Industry Development Report 2013, the sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles was only 24,000 units in the two and a half years from the first half of 2011 to the first half of 2013. In 2013, the sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles was only about 17,000. Therefore, although from 2008 to 2014, the number of domestic lithium-power battery manufacturers increased from about 10 to about 110, but the manufacturers of power batteries were also waiting to see, and did not convert planned production capacity into Effective capacity.
By 2014, under the stimulation of many policies, sales of new energy surged 3.2 times year-on-year to 75,000 units. According to the latest data from January, the production of new energy vehicles in the first month of 2015 reached 6,599 units, a five-fold increase over the same period last year. Strong demand further highlights the short-term lack of capacity. According to Yang Puyu, before the domestic electric vehicle enterprises considered the domestic market to take a long time to cultivate at the beginning of capacity design, most companies only have one production line in production. Coupled with the high demand for new energy power batteries, companies need a period of time in material selection and production. Therefore, according to their predictions, domestic lithium-ion batteries should reach the balance between supply and demand, and the fastest time to wait until 2017.
It is precisely because of this, according to the reporter, in addition to BYD, the rest of the domestic new energy production enterprises will choose 2~3 suppliers to ensure the supply of batteries. But this also faces more problems. On the one hand, the matching of the battery and the whole vehicle requires multiple verifications; on the other hand, it faces greater management costs in the stability and consistency management of the whole vehicle.
High-quality lithium batteries are controlled by foreign companies According to the forecast report released by market research company CCM, the lithium-ion battery industry will surge to 400% in 2017, reaching 20 billion ampere-hours, more than twice the global capacity in 2013. .
In this context, major power battery manufacturers have also expanded production capacity in advance. According to incomplete statistics, in 2014 alone, a number of manufacturing companies including Boston, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Keliyuan, Polyfluorocarbon, Samsung, and LG Chem expanded their battery production capacity. “The huge scale of demand does not mean that all production companies can benefit from the benefits,†Yang Puyu said. According to the report, even in the stage of the explosion of power battery demand in 2014, nearly 40 lithium batteries and related enterprises including Sichuan, Shandong, Guangdong, Henan and other places have closed down. Among them, there are many manufacturers of power batteries. The reason, he told reporters, compared with 3C and other electronic products lithium batteries, power battery investment is greater, more market difficulty. “Although many companies started to invest in 2008, they have not had a market for many years. Even large enterprises such as BAK are losing money or micro-profit in the field of power batteries.†The return on investment cycle is long, and it is coming to large enterprises. It is said that the relationship is not big, but for some enterprises with a single capital structure, it may be the disaster.
On the other hand, although there are many domestic manufacturers of power batteries, there are only a handful of products that can produce high quality products. "At present, domestic automakers almost all choose to cooperate with foreign capital." Yang Puyu told reporters that 60%~70% of the power battery supply on the market comes from foreign capital or joint ventures. Local companies have shortcomings that cannot be ignored in the lack of core technology and production consistency and stability. According to industry insiders, the current production materials for high-end lithium batteries, such as electrolytes, positive and negative materials, and separators, are in the hands of foreign companies. Domestic companies basically rely on technology acquisitions and property rights transfers. In addition, in battery management and complete systems, there is a big gap compared with foreign countries.
Therefore, in the view of Cui Dongshu, deputy secretary-general of the National Federation of the Federation, “Although the development prospects of the lithium battery industry are promising, there are already structural overcapacity situations.†Statistics show that in 2014, China’s lithium-ion battery capacity surplus was about 40. From 100 million to 5 billion ampere-hours, domestic low-end lithium batteries are highly competitive, and price wars have occurred, resulting in a decline in the overall gross profit margin of the industry chain. At the same time, high-quality, high-tech lithium batteries are in short supply, resulting in the price increase of previous manufacturers such as Boston.
This situation will continue. The above-mentioned people believe that enterprises with core technology and capital scale advantages will win more opportunities in the wave of market outbreaks, and the trend of “big fish eating small fish†in the overall market will be further enhanced.
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