Car sales growth is expected to be higher in 2012 than in 2011

The performance of the auto industry this year is far from satisfactory. From January to October, the cumulative sales volume of automobiles was 151.6605 million units, which was a year-on-year increase of 3.15%. This growth rate was significantly lower than the market expectation at the beginning of the year. Not only did car sales decline, auto stocks also fell steadily. In October this year, the automotive sector fell by 10.98% overall, ranking sixth among the two cities' declines. The valuation of automobile stocks has dropped to the lowest level in the end of 2005 and the end of 2008.

Taken together, the reasons for the rapid slowdown in the growth of automobile sales include: the purchase of preferential subsidies and the withdrawal of subsidies, leading to the consumption of small-displacement and low-end product demand in advance; restricting rigid demand in some cities; high inflation and the resulting tightening control Macroeconomic expectations are poor, affecting investment and consumer enthusiasm; raw materials and energy prices have risen rapidly, and they have curbed auto demand and earnings in the short term.

Although the performance of the auto market has been sluggish since this year, in the long run, China’s auto industry is still in a period of rapid development. With regard to China’s current per capita income, extremely low per capita car ownership, and residents’ desire for auto consumption, there is still much room for China’s auto market in the future.

First, China’s automobile penetration rate and per capita income level still do not match. At present, China’s per capita GDP is close to US$4,000, and the number of passengers for thousands of passengers is only 49, equivalent to the level of Japan in 1968 and South Korea around 1990; The peculiar differences between the economic growth poles in the eastern, central and western regions, the wealth effect, and consumption upgrade factors will become the main driving force for the stable development of the auto industry in the next 3-5 years.

The second is the gradual release of the demand for secondary car purchases. Stock replacement will be another source of car demand. The demand for secondary purchases includes the addition of a new car for the family and replacement of the old car to the two types. From the prospective survey of Chinese residents' private cars, the average age of consumers for family cars is expected to be 7 years. Therefore, the potential demand for transfer will gradually be released in the next 3-5 years, becoming a major driving force for the growth of automobile demand.

Third, exports will become the medium and long-term growth drivers for the automotive industry. In the first half of this year, China's total vehicle exports totaled 381,000 vehicles, accounting for 4.09% of the country's total automobile sales, which was 0.73% higher than in 2010, and about half of the peak export volume in 2008 was 7.26%.

There is a simple law between the growth rate of car sales and the growth rate of CPI: When the CPI growth rate is high, the growth rate of automobile sales will inevitably decline. Only if the CPI falls within a relatively reasonable range, will it be possible for the car sales growth rate to rebound. . The CPI has fallen sharply in October. Although the degree of prosperity of the auto industry may still continue to fall to a certain extent, it should be a “soft landing”, and the industry will not repeat the downturn in 2004 and 2008.

If non-normal factors are not taken into consideration, the sales volume of automobiles, especially cars, will be lower than the normal demand growth this year, and the demand will be suppressed. It is expected that the growth rate of car sales will be higher this year than this year, and the capacity utilization rate will also continue to maintain a relatively high level. The industry is expected to usher in a rebound in the economy and it will also give the auto stocks an opportunity to perform.